Failure Probability Analysis of Levees Affected by Mammal Bioerosion

Mammal bioerosion is an emergent threat to the functionality of levees. In present paper, problem assessing failure probability levees affected by mammal addressed. A fully bivariate description peak flow discharge and flood duration combined with a deterministic unsteady seepage model obtain suitable variably disturbed levee response observed natural variability floods. Monte Carlo analysis also implemented evaluate epistemic uncertainty connected river system. The obtained tested respect real-world located along Secchia River in northern Italy, which underwent disastrous caused 2014. convex linear combination two Archimedean copulas found fit empirical dependence structure between duration. reliability against detailed numerical simulations occurring through body. limit state function comparing maximum extent front distance den end riverside slope, corresponding safety regions are delimited. Results from developed reveal significant impact dens near crest terms related return period. This consistent failures study area.